Tommy's Regional Watch List

May 29, 2016

Tommy Marquez

Tommy Marquez provides a short list of the regional heats he is watching this weekend. 

FRIDAY, MAY 27

Meridian Team Event 1 (Heat 1: 9 - 9:25 a.m. CET): Only two members of Turicum’s 2015 Games-qualifying team return in 2016. To make it back to the Games, the team is going to need to climb out of the first heat.

Meridian Team Events 1, 2 and 3 (Heat 3: 9:50 - 10:15 a.m., 11 - 11:15 a.m, 11:50 a.m. - 12:05 p.m. CET): CrossFit Yas was the best team in the world in the 2016 Open, and claims the women’s Open winner Jamie Greene. While you may be tempted to focus on Yas, don’t overlook Team CrossFit Copenhagen 1. The team's coach showed me practice runs of the regional events, and the team may very well set new event records.

Meridian Women's Event 1 (Heat 4: 12:55 - 1:10 p.m. CET): Sara Sigmundsdottir may be the only woman in the world capable of coming close to Kara Webb’s 5:29 Event 1 record. Sigmundsdottir recently posted a video of herself snatching 175 lb. for a tap-and-go triple. Mix that with her overall capacity and she should at least win this event.

Meridian Men's Event 1 (Heat 3: 1:45 - 2 p.m. CET): Last year, Jonne Koski won the Meridian Regional (with four regional event wins) and went on to claim ninth at the Games. His one shortcoming has been his top-end strength, with his lowest Games event finish in the Snatch Speed Ladder (36th). This year’s starting event will give him a chance to redeem himself.  

Meridian Women's Event 2 (Heat 4: 3:40 - 4:05 p.m. CET): Sam Briggs is a machine when it comes to muscle-ups, strict or not, and has some of the best upper-body pulling power around (16.3). Muscle fatigue has been the roadblock that's kept anyone on the women's side from finishing. I'm calling it now: Briggs is going to finish Regional Nate.

Meridian Men's Event 2 (Heat 4: 5:30 - 5:55 p.m. CET): Bronze-medalist Bjorgvin Karl Gudmundsson comes in with significantly more pressure than last year. He won Murph at last year’s Games, an event that hugely affected other competitors. I want to see if he can do the same in Regional Nate, where many have struggled with the strict muscle-ups.

East Team Events 1 & 2 (Heat 3: 9:35 - 10 a.m., 10:45 - 11 a.m. ET): The teams in the top heat for the East are led by a trio of former individual Games women athletes. JaktRX Red (Azadeh Boroumand), Team Dynamix (Amy Dracup), and Team Back Bay (Jessa Lemoine), will line up alongside reigning regional champ Pro1 Montreal, and second-place finisher at the 2015 Games, CrossFit Milford Black.

East Women's Event 1 (Heat 2 and 3: 12:10 - 12:40 p.m. ET): Heather Soukas should set the early time to beat in Heat 2. (Soukas took second in the snatch event last year.) 2015 Games qualifiers Whitney Gelin and Dani Horan should be the frontrunners to watch in Heat 3 before the top women from the Open hit the floor.

East Men’s Event 1 (Heat 3 and 4: 1:30 - 2 p.m. ET): In Heat 3 watch Tim Paulson and Austin Malleolo. Paulson has a 290-lb. snatch and could win this heat. Meanwhile, watch to see if Malleolo struggles. The final barbells exceed Malleolo’s posted 1-rep max (255 lb.); he will need to channel his inner Josh Bridges to finish this event. Mat Fraser is an easy pick for the final heat, but don’t overlook the other five Games veterans in that heat as well as guys like Nicholas DelGrande who has a 300-lb. snatch.

East Women’s Event 2 (Heat 4: 3:25 - 3:50 p.m. ET): Top contenders Katrin Davidsdottir and Michele Letendre, as well as up-and-comers Maude Charron and Tasia Percevecz should do extremely well on the snatch event that starts the day. What I'm curious to see is how these women do on an event that has yet to be finished by any woman. (Alethea Boon came closest, finishing all but 10 reps.) Add collegiate gymnast and 2015 Games rookie Kari Pearce into the mix, and it's going to be a can't-miss event.

East Men’s Event 2 (Heat 4: 5:15 - 5:40 p.m. ET): Don’t lose sight of Patrick Vellner and Chase Smith, newcomers who earned top-20 worldwide finishes in the 2016 Open (eighth, 16th). Vellner is a national-level gymnast in Canada, and Smith loves strict gymnastics movements. During my interview with Smith before the 2016 Regional Events were announced, he mentioned that he hoped Regional Nate included strict muscle-ups. Regional Nate could be the moment they arrive as contenders.

Central Team Event 1 (Heat 3: 10:05 - 10:30 a.m. ET): The reigning Affiliate Cup champions, CrossFit Mayhem Freedom, will have to contend with some of the world’s top teams at the Central Regional. Three other teams finished in the top 10 worldwide in the 2016 Open— OC3 Black, CrossFit 417 and Timberwolf CrossFit. It’ll be a back-and-forth battle for the top spot all weekend long.

Central Team Events 2 and 3 (Heat 3: 11:15 - 11:30 a.m., 12:05 - 12:20 a.m. ET): Rich Froning, James Hobart and Matt Hewett of CrossFit Mayhem Freedom will shine in Team Event 2. All three men should make it to the last bar, the question is whether they’ll make it through it. New addition Lindy Barber will be an asset for Mayhem in Event 3; she has a listed snatch 1-rep max of 190 lb.

Central Women’s Event 1 (Heat 2: 12:40 - 12:55 p.m. ET): For years, Elisabeth Akinwale has dominated events with heavy barbells claiming first or second on the strength event the last four years. Akinwale will have a tough road ahead of her to qualify for the Games, but the weekend should start out well.

Central Women’s Event 2 (Heats 3 and 4: 3:30 - 4:20 p.m. ET): Julie Foucher may not be training to go to the Games, but her gymnastics skills are still top notch and she should do well in Regional Nate. Meanwhile, the defending regional champ, Brooke Wells, may be challenged. She has posted on social media about her struggles with strict muscle-ups ever since this event was released.

Central Men’s Event 1 (Heat 2: 1:45 - 2 p.m. ET): Nick Urankar and Graham Holmberg are the two Games veterans starting the weekend in the early heats. Urankar, a powerhouse, did phenomenally in the snatch event at the 2015 Central Regional and should do well yet again.

Central Men’s Event 2 (Heat 4: 5:45 - 6:10 p.m. ET): I expect this weekend will be the Jacob Heppner vs. Scott Panchik show. Both should do well in the snatch ladder, but I think Regional Nate will be the event to watch.

SATURDAY, MAY 28

Meridian Team Events 4 and 5 (Heat 3: 9:50 - 10:15 a.m. CET): CrossFit Yas’s women showcased their strength on Friday in Team Event 3. Starting Saturday, all three women will be back out on the floor for Event 4 and they should do well. The question is whether the men can keep pace in Event 5.

Meridian Women’s Events 3 and 4 (Heat 3: 12:35 - 12:55 p.m. CET): The Sam Briggs Comeback Show starts tomorrow in the second to last heat. Briggs has said that she plans on “going crazy on Event 3 and 4.” I expect her to go unbroken on the 104 wall balls. After that, the question is whether she can do the 52 pull-ups unbroken and recover for Event 4 which starts one minute later.

Meridian Men’s Events 3 and 4 (Heat 3: 2:05 - 2:25 p.m. CET): I suspect Steven Fawcett is glad Day 1 is over. The 2015 Games qualifier finished both of Friday’s events outside the top 10, putting him in 14th overall. He'll need strong finishes on Saturday to overcome the 30-point gap between himself and 5th place.

Meridian Women’s Events 5 (Heat 4: 4:00 - 4:20 p.m. CET): Briggs should set the time to beat in the earlier heat, which Sara Sigmundsdottir, Annie Thorisdottir, and Kristin Holte will chase. All three should establish themselves as the frontrunners early, but overlook Thuridur Erla Helgadottir (the only woman to finish Regional Nate) since she may make a charge late in the event.

Meridian Men’s Event 5 (Heat 4: 5:30 - 5:50 p.m. CET): I can’t help but think this is an event that Mikko Salo would have crushed back in the day. A tough grinder of a workout with running, tons of GHDs and heavy deadlifts would have been right up his alley. The same should go for his protege Jonne Koski, who’ll get a good push from Bjorgvin Karl Gudmundsson in this one.

East Team Events 4 and 5 (Heat 2: 9:10 - 9:35 a.m. ET): Reigning East Regional champion Pro1 Montreal dug itself into a HUGE (53-point) hole today. That’s a big margin to make up, even with 6 scored events remaining. If Pro1 doesn’t notch a couple top-5 finishes, the team may be watching the 2016 Games from home.

East Team Event 6 (Heat 3: 11:05 - 11:30 a.m. ET): For all the hype surrounding Team Dynamix, it was CrossFit Parallax that showed up big on Friday. We’ll see how the team from New Jersey works in pairs in the Event 6 series of classic CrossFit couplets.

Central Team Event 6 (Heat 3: 11:35 a.m. - 12:00 p.m. ET): There’s an exciting race for the final qualifying spot to the CrossFit Games forming between OC3 Black and Maximus. The two teams ended Friday two points apart. Event 6 has has plenty of strategy in how teams pick their pairs, from there, it’s how bad you want to want to suffer (in unison) on the burpees and deadlifts. With teams fighting for position before the final day we could see a spectacular finish in this event.

East Women’s Events 3 and 4 (Heat 4: 12:40 - 1:00 p.m. ET): So far so good for newcomer Tasia Percevecz. With third on Event 1 and seventh on Event 2, she closed Friday in fourth overall alongside some big names in the sport. Saturday’s starting back-to-back events are vastly different than what we saw tested on Friday, allowing her to showcase her engine next to Katrin Davidsdottir and Michele Letendre.

Central Women’s Events 3 and 4 (Heat 3: 12:50 - 1:10 p.m. ET):  Brooke Wells’ see-saw Friday came as no surprise to anyone that saw her struggle with strict muscle-ups on social media. She has to have good finishes in these two events because top 6 women in the overall standings will be tough to shake. Wells will have Julie Foucher and Elisabeth Akinwale in her heat, which could help keep her on pace to re-earn her spot in the final heat for later events and get within striking distance of the top 5.

East Men’s 3 and 4 (Heat 4: 2:10 - 2:30 p.m. ET): Mat Fraser has won everything so far, making his heat an obvious must-watch. I’m calling it now: Fraser will set event records in both 3 and 4, thereby becoming the first athlete to start the Regional with four straight wins.

Central Men’s Events 3 and 4 (Heat 3: 2:20 - 2:40 p.m. ET): Jacob Heppner is losing the battle to Panchik, but is isn’t the Panchik you’d expect. Scott’s 19-year-old brother Saxon is one spot ahead of Heppner in 12th. I don’t expect that to hold through Day 2; I think Heppner is going to throttle these two events.

East Men’s Event 5 (Heat 2: 4:35 - 4:55 p.m. ET): This combination of deadlifts, running, and GHDs showed up in a CrossFit Games event back in 2011. That Games event was the Triplet Sprint. Austin Malleolo took 3rd in the Games that year, and still today remains one of the best in the business with heavy deadlifts in a workout. (He took 1st worldwide in 14.3.)

SUNDAY, MAY 29

Meridian Team Events 7 and 8 (Heat 3: 9:40 - 10:00 a.m. CET): The race between the teams on the bubble will hinge on these two events. CFXY is clinging to 5th place, 17 points ahead of Team CrossFit Nordic in 6th and 27 ahead of 7th place CrossFit Reykjavik. A strong performance similar to day 2 for CFXY could pad their lead and give them breathing room in the team finale.

Meridian Women’s Events 6 and 7 (Heat 4: 1:00 - 1:20 p.m., 3:35 - 3:45 p.m. CET): The top five are essentially set, with 5th place Kristin Holte 48 points ahead of 6th place Emma McQuaid. With that in mind, sit back, relax, and watch the battle between Sara Sigmundsdottir, Annie Thorisdottir, and Sam Briggs now that Briggs is back in the final heat.

Meridian Men’s Event 6 (Heat 4: 2:30 - 2:50 p.m. CET): Lukas Hogberg has a precarious hold on fifth with just two points separating him from newcomer Adrian Mundwiler. Event 6 will be Hogberg’s last chance to put some distance between them.

Central Team Events 7 and 8 (Heat 3: 9:55 - 10:15 a.m. ET): It’s do or die time for Kelley Jackson’s team, CrossFit 417. Luckily, these events look good for 417. So far, the team’s best finish was second on Team Event 1 which featured weightlifting and synchronized gymnastics, and that’s precisely what’s on tap for them to start Sunday.

East Team Event 9 (Heat 3: 10:55 - 11:25 a.m. ET): CrossFit Milford has two teams in the final heat on Sunday. Their lower-ranked team, CrossFit Milford Red, is 33 points away from the fifth and final qualifying spot. Can this affiliate manage to send two teams to the CrossFit Games?

East Women’s Event 6 (Heat 4: 12:45 - 1:05 p.m. ET): Ten, 18, and 23 points separate Whitney Gelin, Tasia Percevecz, and Cheryl Nasso from fifth-ranked Dani Horan heading into the final day. It’s remarkable how these three women on the bubble of qualifying for the Games have recovered from a poor event finish outside the top 25, with multiple top-5 event finishes. Strong finishes on the Chipper will make the final event exciting to watch.

East Men’s Event 6 (Heat 4: 2:15 - 2:35 p.m. ET): Mat Fraser has won four of the five events so far, and he should rack up a fifth win on Event 6. Why? He won the chipper last year.  his performance in last year’s Event 3 chipper stands as proof. He’ll have to watch out for Spencer Hendel and Austin Malleolo, who are sitting in 8th and 9th heading into Sunday and will be trying to claw their way back into the top 5.

Central Men Event 6 (Heat 4: 2:45 - 3:05 p.m. ET): Scott Panchik led comfortably after Day 1, only to have Jacob Heppner come storming back like a man possessed and unseat him for first overall on Day 2. In my opinion, Event 6 is one of the best all around tests of the weekend, which should mean it’ll be a great event to watch the two top dogs fight it out.

Central Women’s Event 7 (Heat 4: 3:50 - 4:00 p.m. ET): Nicole Chovan and Karla Solum have crashed the party in the Central, taking fifth and sixth with just one point between them. We’ve seen newcomers soar through six events only to come crashing down during the finale, Event 7. I’d guess that the top woman in the Open in the Central East, Kristin Eramo, hopes that’s the case since she’s in 8th overall, 18 points back.